With that mysterious playstation even happening tomorrow(more like later today), I should share my two cents before ps4 gets announce and I lost bragging rights to spot on predictions =D.
So let me start with my pessimistic guess on whats going to happen. The entire event is spent showing move controllers compatibility with the vita. along with showing a prototype vita midlife face lift...w00t! and if we get lucky, they officially acknowledge that they are working on a next gen console.
Now, on to what I really think, or wish was true.
Originally, I was expecting sony to stick closer to their 10 year cycle. They dropped hints in interviews about wanting to just sit out the competition and see their specs. The truthfulness of these hints were backed by their silence and vagueness regarding the vita's future, echoing what really became of the vita... which is really not a lot... Then there's their lineup of first party games seeming to flow endlessly, hinting the ps3 still has some time left.
Aside from their PR being a source of evidence, the 10 year cycle really matched the dates of upcoming computer technology revolutions. With DDR4 ram just around the corner, it was just the start. GDDR6 seemed to be coming in a couple years. Nvidia is working on project Denver. This stuff isn't just the next faster version, it's a redisign to get around the limitations of current tech. Dropping a new console with the latest tech now would only have it fall behind PCs much faster than other years. Not to mention SSDs have just dropped past $1/GB, which is still rather expensive.
Most importantly we are getting new TV tech. There's 4k, 8k and OLED coming out, and there is no way current machines can run games to 4k's potential. Personally, I think 4k could end up as a secondary common resolution(like a replacement 720p) while 8k becomes the new real standard (like 1080p). Last E3 we saw tech demos from the latest game engines which looked amazing. Those things ran off of high end current computers(with some headroom), but also ran on current display tech. Imagine how crummy it would look if they were upscaled to 4k because next gen consoles could only run the current standard, which is 1080. On top of that fps is no longer a limitation with OLEDs, because iirc they can run at 10,000 fps...or something to that effect of ridiculousness, so people are going to want more frames in their games as well.
I was quite sure the rumors were wrong and I'm the smartest person in the world until this even was announced. Maybe that's what sony was going to do, until they realized what I think nintendo is up to.
(conspiracy theory) Basically nintendo sticks to a six year console cycle like they are minding their own business, while sony and microsoft tried to drag on this gen to make it to the next gen of computer tech. little did they know, that it was all part nintendo's plan, beginning from the gamecube. First, they had the weakest machine for two gens, making the competition disregard them as they could then sit out the console war. Then the wii u comes along, in the middle of what is technically only in the middle of said 10 year cycle of the other consoles. The wii u itself is made just to act as a two way bait. It could either make the competition think they are weaksauce and try to sit them out again(while they start to win this halfway gen), or make them panic and move their schedule up. Either way, nintendo wins with that 6 year shcedule. They either get to drop another halfway gen again next time(if sony and ms speed up to compete), or they become the last to release a real next gen(if sony and ms decide to wait out their 10 years) while putting minimal effort in hardware to sit just slightly above the rest.
This is where my last prediction comes in. Looking at the timing of this event, sony realized nintendo's plan and decided to move their schedule to compete with them. In order for them to also win against the wii u and what becomes nintendo's next half gen upgrade they need to use their secret weapon. That weapon would be the rumored AMD cpu, combined the iirc the story of sony buying back a cell processor plan from toshiba or someone like that. The AMD rumor is a bait to make ms finalize their specs thinking they are on the same page, and acts as a morale booster for devs and fanboys, thinking the cell is gone. The war is then won by outliving and outperforming everyone and everything including high end PCs for the get go by using the cell processor. How that is used? There is a certain supercomputer that IBM built, using cells to do the hard work for the AMDs that they are connected to...while the AMD cpu go for a tea break or something. It's called the roadrunner, and it's a very efficient monster. With that out in the wild, packed in cases of game consoles, sony can sit on their hands and call it a day, for another 10 year cycle...or so I dream =D
On the off chance that this long winded conspiracy theory that nobody will ever read happens to be true, I errr... umm... idk what to say about it then lol. XD
anyway sleepy, cant type, no pics, nobody wants to read wall of text, etc
So let me start with my pessimistic guess on whats going to happen. The entire event is spent showing move controllers compatibility with the vita. along with showing a prototype vita midlife face lift...w00t! and if we get lucky, they officially acknowledge that they are working on a next gen console.
Now, on to what I really think, or wish was true.
Originally, I was expecting sony to stick closer to their 10 year cycle. They dropped hints in interviews about wanting to just sit out the competition and see their specs. The truthfulness of these hints were backed by their silence and vagueness regarding the vita's future, echoing what really became of the vita... which is really not a lot... Then there's their lineup of first party games seeming to flow endlessly, hinting the ps3 still has some time left.
Aside from their PR being a source of evidence, the 10 year cycle really matched the dates of upcoming computer technology revolutions. With DDR4 ram just around the corner, it was just the start. GDDR6 seemed to be coming in a couple years. Nvidia is working on project Denver. This stuff isn't just the next faster version, it's a redisign to get around the limitations of current tech. Dropping a new console with the latest tech now would only have it fall behind PCs much faster than other years. Not to mention SSDs have just dropped past $1/GB, which is still rather expensive.
Most importantly we are getting new TV tech. There's 4k, 8k and OLED coming out, and there is no way current machines can run games to 4k's potential. Personally, I think 4k could end up as a secondary common resolution(like a replacement 720p) while 8k becomes the new real standard (like 1080p). Last E3 we saw tech demos from the latest game engines which looked amazing. Those things ran off of high end current computers(with some headroom), but also ran on current display tech. Imagine how crummy it would look if they were upscaled to 4k because next gen consoles could only run the current standard, which is 1080. On top of that fps is no longer a limitation with OLEDs, because iirc they can run at 10,000 fps...or something to that effect of ridiculousness, so people are going to want more frames in their games as well.
I was quite sure the rumors were wrong and I'm the smartest person in the world until this even was announced. Maybe that's what sony was going to do, until they realized what I think nintendo is up to.
(conspiracy theory) Basically nintendo sticks to a six year console cycle like they are minding their own business, while sony and microsoft tried to drag on this gen to make it to the next gen of computer tech. little did they know, that it was all part nintendo's plan, beginning from the gamecube. First, they had the weakest machine for two gens, making the competition disregard them as they could then sit out the console war. Then the wii u comes along, in the middle of what is technically only in the middle of said 10 year cycle of the other consoles. The wii u itself is made just to act as a two way bait. It could either make the competition think they are weaksauce and try to sit them out again(while they start to win this halfway gen), or make them panic and move their schedule up. Either way, nintendo wins with that 6 year shcedule. They either get to drop another halfway gen again next time(if sony and ms speed up to compete), or they become the last to release a real next gen(if sony and ms decide to wait out their 10 years) while putting minimal effort in hardware to sit just slightly above the rest.
This is where my last prediction comes in. Looking at the timing of this event, sony realized nintendo's plan and decided to move their schedule to compete with them. In order for them to also win against the wii u and what becomes nintendo's next half gen upgrade they need to use their secret weapon. That weapon would be the rumored AMD cpu, combined the iirc the story of sony buying back a cell processor plan from toshiba or someone like that. The AMD rumor is a bait to make ms finalize their specs thinking they are on the same page, and acts as a morale booster for devs and fanboys, thinking the cell is gone. The war is then won by outliving and outperforming everyone and everything including high end PCs for the get go by using the cell processor. How that is used? There is a certain supercomputer that IBM built, using cells to do the hard work for the AMDs that they are connected to...while the AMD cpu go for a tea break or something. It's called the roadrunner, and it's a very efficient monster. With that out in the wild, packed in cases of game consoles, sony can sit on their hands and call it a day, for another 10 year cycle...or so I dream =D
On the off chance that this long winded conspiracy theory that nobody will ever read happens to be true, I errr... umm... idk what to say about it then lol. XD
anyway sleepy, cant type, no pics, nobody wants to read wall of text, etc
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Going off topic is encouraged. =D